This El Niño will bring predictable disasters, so why aren’t we ready?
We know that this monster El Niño will bring floods, droughts, cyclones and wildfires, but some governments aren’t putting in the necessary resources to prepare for disaster
El Niño brings weather of opposite extremes – floods, droughts, cyclones, wildfires – to opposite sides of the planet. But we often forget that most of this extreme weather is highly predictable.
For example, all eight strong El Niños in the past 70 years have caused drought in Indonesia. All major models predict the current record El Niño will lead to a dry autumn and winter there. So it’s little surprise that Indonesia is struggling with worsening drought and wildfires. Similarly predictable effects will be seen worldwide over the next year.
Because of this predictability, some experts argue that there are no “natural” disasters. With enough preparation, rich societies should be able to withstand almost any extreme weather. Some governments, like those of California and Peru, have begun this preparation and declared states of emergency, but many haven’t. China, India and some European nations have large grain stores to deal with food shocks, but the US, the UK, Canada and Australia don’t.
“With preparation, rich societies should be able to withstand almost any extreme weather”
Meanwhile, the most vulnerable countries – Ethiopia, Sudan and South Sudan – have plans to prevent widespread hunger and death, but other United Nations members have provided only one-third of the necessary funding.
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Besides pledging money to those who need it most, investing more in the public infrastructure we use every day would pay off. UK sewers overflow and US and European power grids collapse even during “normal” conditions, so it is no wonder they aren’t ready for extreme weather from El Niño or global warming. More speculatively, there are proposals to dull the worst impacts of El Niño through geoengineering efforts.
Though El Niño is a natural cycle within Earth’s delicate climate system, it’s within our power to avoid its worst effects. That would mean, as ever, cutting carbon emissions to halt global warming, leaving us with one less extreme to worry about. The impact of ever-growing emissions is entirely predictable, so no one can say we weren’t warned.
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